India has intensified efforts to secure crude oil supplies as Middle Eastern flows have dwindled following the crisis triggered by US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Traditionally reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for nearly half of its imports, India has faced a sharp disruption in traffic through the waterway since late February.
Analysts have warned that India’s modest reserves, compared with larger consumers such as China, leave it exposed to sudden price shocks. Yet, despite difficulties with cooking gas supplies, the country has avoided the petrol shortages that have affected some neighbours.
Ship‑tracking data indicates that India has turned to a mix of old allies and previously dormant suppliers to fill the gap. Russian crude has emerged as the most significant backstop. Imports surged to an average of 1.98 million barrels per day in March, nearly double the levels of January and February.
This increase was facilitated by a temporary US waiver granted in March, covering Russian oil already at sea. Analysts suggest India contracted an additional 60 million barrels for delivery through April, with refiners moving swiftly to secure volumes before the waiver’s May 16 deadline.
The extension of the waiver by President Donald Trump has provided Indian refiners crucial breathing space, though it has drawn criticism from Ukraine, which argues that such exemptions undermine efforts to restrict Russia’s revenues.
African suppliers have also played a role. Imports from Angola averaged 327,000 barrels per day in March, nearly triple February’s levels. Officials at state‑run refiners noted that these purchases were initiated before the Iran strikes and have proven valuable as shipments from Iraq and other Middle Eastern producers declined.
Nigeria and Angola have both contributed to this diversification. Meanwhile, crude from Iran and Venezuela has begun arriving again, with imports averaging 276,000 barrels per day from Iran and 137,000 barrels per day from Venezuela in mid‑April. These flows represent a reversal of earlier caution, when refiners avoided both suppliers to sidestep US sanctions.
Despite these efforts, India’s overall crude imports fell to 4.5 million barrels per day in March, down from 5.2 million in February. Analysts caution that African crudes cannot fully substitute Middle Eastern grades due to refinery configuration mismatches.
Prices have also risen, with April barrels secured at $5 to $15 above the Brent benchmark. State‑run retailers have not yet raised pump prices, with the government cutting excise duties to shield consumers. However, some analysts warn that prices could rise by as much as 28 rupees per litre once state elections conclude later this month.
The oil ministry has acknowledged that government‑owned fuel companies are incurring losses but insists that no immediate hike is planned, stressing that India remains the only country where petrol and diesel prices have not increased in the past four years.
India’s strategy of reviving ties with Russia, Africa, Iran, and Venezuela has so far preserved access to crude, even if at higher costs.
The government continues to emphasise its commitment to insulating citizens from steep international price rises, underscoring the balancing act between geopolitical constraints, economic resilience, and domestic political considerations.
AFP
