As China-U.S. tensions persist, will ASEAN remain a stage for competition between the two major powers? Or will the region become an actor that actively shapes the regional order by strengthening its own unity and institutional capacity? According to The State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, as caution toward both the U.S. and China persists, the region is becoming increasingly aware of the need to bolster its collective autonomy by enhancing ASEAN’s resilience and unity. Japan needs to recognize its role in strengthening ASEAN’s autonomy as part of its own economic strategy.
Neither China nor the US: ASEAN’s Unstable Balance
It is true that in the 2026 edition, trust in China across ASEAN rose to 39.8 percent, surpassing distrust for the first time since the survey began. However, it is too early to conclude that ASEAN is siding with China. While China is widely seen as the most influential economic power in the region, more than half of respondents (55.4 percent) expressed concern about China’s expanding influence. As for the expansion of China’s political and strategic influence, 66.1 percent expressed concern. It is difficult to economically distance the region from China, but there is a strong sense of wariness in the political and security spheres across the region. This duality is the essence of how ASEAN citizens currently view China.
The same is true for the U.S. Overall, net trust in the United States remains positive even under the unpredictable Trump administration, but the picture is patchy at the individual country level. Indonesia and Malaysia have deep distrust in the U.S. over its response to Palestine, while Singapore has come to feel concern and distrust over Washington’s opaque trade policy. While a majority of respondents stated they would choose China over the U.S. if they had to pick one, this should be seen less as a shift toward China than as a reflection of distrust in the U.S. In other words, ASEAN has concluded that it cannot safely trust either China or the U.S.
Resilience and Unity
This is where the desire for autonomy is born. In terms of responding to U.S.-China tensions, a clear majority believes ASEAN should bolster its resilience and unity to fend off pressure from the two great powers. This is a sign that ASEAN respondents increasingly recognize that non-alignment or passive neutrality is no longer enough. Even in reciprocal tariff negotiations, ASEAN member states were unable to present a united front, and ultimately each country ended up negotiating separately under U.S. pressure. If Southeast Asia cannot demonstrate its autonomy and engage in collective negotiations, ASEAN centrality itself could be undermined, even turning into a centrifugal force that weakens regional cohesion and casts doubt on the ASEAN community itself.
From Japan’s perspective, this is the heart of the 2026 survey. What ASEAN needs is a third option that is aligned with neither China nor the U.S. That means strengthening its own institutional capacity and capacity for policy coordination. In reality, the survey indicates that “the lack of domestic capacity for technocratic implementation among member states” and “differences in economic development” are viewed as the primary obstacles to economic integration, even more so than pressure to prioritize national interests or a lack of political will regarding ASEAN centrality. The problem lies in a lack of capacity for implementation. Whether the various rules agreed upon within ASEAN can be consistently enforced across member states will determine the success of true integration.
A Role for Japan
Japan can play a major role in supporting the institutional foundations that ASEAN needs to avoid dependence on major powers. At the Davos Forum in January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for “Middle Power Unity,” a call that carries great weight for both Canada and Japan. If the U.S. and China, the world’s two major powers, hollow out the international order, Japan should stand alongside Australia, Canada, the EU, and India in support of expanding options and together support ASEAN’s autonomy as a collective middle power.
The areas for cooperation are clear. Support for customs procedures, standard certifications, rules of origin, and digital system implementation will improve the effectiveness of ASEAN integration. The region’s resilience can also be strengthened through cooperation on climate change, energy transitions, food security, maritime security, and measures against cross-border crime. Additionally, support in establishing rules in the digital and green fields will also enable ASEAN to move from being a rule-taker to a rule-maker. For Japanese companies as well, these initiatives are directly connected to greater stability in customs clearance costs, regulatory compliance costs, supply chains, investment decisions, and business continuity planning. Support for ASEAN is not a gesture of goodwill, but is part of Japan’s own economic strategy.
Rather than demonstrating growing trust in China, the 2026 ISEAS survey revealed that ASEAN has finally begun to reject its role as a stage for U.S.-China tensions. Japan’s role is to support this shift toward greater autonomy. A resilient ASEAN will not only contribute to stability in the region; it will also offer the most realistic path for both Japan and ASEAN to navigate an increasingly unstable Indo-Pacific caught in the U.S.-China rivalry.
