Indo-Pak Dialogue: Dreams And Reality

The next year, he once again used the UNGA podium to accuse India of being a country where the “state sponsors Islamophobia” and alleged that this was happening due to the overbearing prevalence of “RSS ideology.” But that’s not all. Just four months later, Islamabad formally approached UNSC seeking inclusion of RSS in the list of “violent nationalist groups” and demanded its proscription as it purportedly posed “a clear danger to regional and international peace and security.”

So, RSS General Secretary Dattatreya Hosabale’s recent recommendation that New Delhi “should not close the door” and that “we should always be ready to engage in dialogue” with Pakistan is both surprising and intriguing.

Expectedly, it has caused a stir of sorts in political circles- while J&K’s main political parties- National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party, endorsed the RSS general secretary’s viewpoint, the Indian National Congress views it as downright capitulation under foreign (US) pressure.

As is their wont, political parties are more interested in extracting political mileage from this incident rather than engaging in serious discussion and debate on the issue of Indo-Pak dialogue. It’s therefore imperative that the suggestion of negotiating peace with Pakistan through talks that keeps surfacing intermittently be addressed dispassionately to evaluate the viability (and probability) of ending Indo-Pak stand-off through dialogue.

Peace Dividends

There’s no gainsaying the fact that peaceful coexistence between neighbouring countries is a win-win situation for all. Once amity replaces animosity, borders cease to be impassable barriers and this facilitates free trade, transit and people to people contact.

Once relations normalise, the fear of war automatically diminishes obviating the need for regularly incurring colossal expenditure on defence, and the money thus saved can be gainfully utilised for developmental activities as well as welfare of the people.

The annual expenditure on defence by India and Pakistan is mind boggling. In 2025, India spent $11.9 bn (Approx 2.3 percent of its GDP) while Pakistan’s defence expenditure stood at $11.9 bn (approximately 2.9 percent of its GDP). Due to increased tension between the two countries, these figures will definitely escalate significantly during the current year leaving less money with both New Delhi and Islamabad for undertaking other essential programmes like healthcare and poverty alleviation.

While any reduction in defence expenditure will greatly help both countries, it’s obvious that cash-strapped Pakistan needs this money much more desperately than India. So, it would be logical to expect that in the overall interests of Pakistan, it would be keen on normalising relations with India, and this adds weight to the RRS general secretary’s call for keeping doors for negotiations open.

However, Pakistan has surprisingly made no serious efforts to create an environment conducive for talks. However, the Government of Pakistan cannot be entirely blamed for this as it’s a well known fact that in Pakistan, it’s the military and not the government that calls the shots.

Rawalpindi’s Dilemma

By successfully portraying India as an existential threat and projecting the Pakistan army as a bulwark against New Delhi’s hegemonistic designs, Rawalpindi has acquired a host of extra-constitutional powers. Though its primary role is defending Pakistan, it simultaneously runs a sprawling business empire valued at over $20 bn, which includes banking, insurance, manufacturing, real estate, fertilizer, cement, food, power generation and LPG supply and even renting out marriage halls.

The Pakistan army is law unto itself. It has orchestrated dismissals of democratically elected governments, brazenly used the judiciary to imprison (and in one case even execute) the prime minister and get laws passed to save its senior officers.

Gen Pervez Musharraf’s disclosure that the then army chief Gen Raheel Sharif had facilitated his foreign travel by getting the judiciary to remove his name from Exit Control List and Islamabad High Court Judge Justice Shaukat Siddiqui’s shocking revelation that “In different cases, the ISI (Pakistan army’s spy agency Inter Services Intelligence) forms benches of its choice to get desired results” indicates the military’s complete hold over the judiciary.

Similarly, recently promulgated 27th constitutional amendment that provides self-appointed Field Marshal Asim Munir lifelong immunity from criminal persecution reveals the complete control of the army over the legislature.

So, while normalisation of relations with India would definitely prove beneficial for Pakistan, it would also reduce the Pakistan army’s relevance and this would pose a serious threat to its undisputed power base. It’s thus obvious that what’s good for Pakistan is paradoxically detrimental to the army’s interests.

This is the reason why Rawalpindi doesn’t approve of Indo-Pak dialogue or normalisation of relations with India, and the people of Pakistan know this. “Yeh jo dehshatgardi hai, uske peeche wardi hai” (the uniform is behind terrorism) is an oft used slogan used by protesters in Pakistan that aptly highlights the level to which the Pakistan army can stoop to further its self-serving agenda of protecting its supremacy at all costs.

Creating Impediments

Rawalpindi has the dubious record of not only scuttling Indo-Pak negotiations but also fuelling anti-India sentiments to ensure that there’s no scope of achieving normalcy.

In 1999, the mutual trust built between India and Pakistan by the Delhi-Lahore Bus service initiative was effectively sabotaged by the Kargil intrusions masterminded by the Pakistan army, and later its architect Gen Musharraf pretended to be a peacenik by attending the Agra Summit but skilfully ensured that the talks to broker peace fail.

Readers would also recall that in 2014, the Pakistan army chief had reservations about allowing Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to attend his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi’s oath taking ceremony possibly because the two prime ministers getting close could bring about a thaw in relations. However, since the media published news of the army chief-prime minister disagreement, the former relented just to save face.

Just three days before Sharif was scheduled to reach India for this event, the Indian Consulate in Herat, Afghanistan, was attacked by terrorists. Luckily all the attackers were killed by alert Indian security guards before they could cause any damage. At that time no one linked this terrorist attack to Sharif’s India visit.

However, the US Government subsequently identified the assailants as members of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which is a Pakistan army sponsored terrorist group. It later emerged that the aim of this attack was to inflict casualties on India’s diplomatic staff to trigger Indo-Pak tensions that would prevent the Pakistani Prime Minister from going to India- a wily manipulation contrived by ISI to foreclose any possibility of cordiality in Indo-Pak relations.

Promoting Hatred

Talking of the present, one finds that rather than trying to promote amity, Field Marshal Munir has instead been working assiduously to so vitiate the environment that even the illusion of “Aman Ki Asha” (hope of peace) that anyone in India and Pakistan has is done away with for good through a two pronged approach.

One, he’s brazenly promoting Hinduphobia by telling his people that Muslims can’t coexist with Hindus and instigating them by using provocative claims, like Indo-Pak faceoff is due to a “clash of ideologies.” Two, he’s simultaneously using terrorists to specifically target members of the Hindu community in J&K in order to provoke a backlash against Muslims so he can cite such retaliatory violence as proof of the inherent incompatibility of these two religions.

On June 9, 2024, Pakistan sponsored terrorists ambushed a bus in the Reasi district of J&K killing nine and injuring more than 30 passengers. This wasn’t a random attack- it was a well planned act meant to kill two birds with one stone and had the patent signature of Pakistan’s spy agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) all over.

The target selection was meticulously done- it was a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims returning from their visit to a holy shrine. ISI expected that specifically targeting Hindus would arouse anti-Muslim sentiments and lead to violence against local Muslims. Two, this attack was extremely well timed. Coming just an hour before Modi was scheduled to take oath as prime minister for his third consecutive term, it was meant to embarrass Modi and give ammunition to the opposition to use against him.

A year later, Field Marshal Munir resurrected the Two-Nation Theory and within days after his gross diatribe on this issue, Pahalgam witnessed the mass killing of tourists. Here again, terrorists followed the Reasi terror attack pattern – they singled out and killed Hindus and also tried to embarrass Modi by telling the wife of a victim that her life was being spared so that she could go and tell him what happened.

Prognosis

Modi’s message to Nawaz Sharif that “The sound of talks gets lost in the sound of bomb blasts” holds good- both literally as well as metaphorically. And his view that “bomb blasts should stop so that we can talk and our voices can be heard” is a logical statement that can’t be contested. So, since talks are the only way forward, the RSS general secretary’s suggestion of keeping doors open for dialogue makes sense.

However, when it’s amply clear that Pakistan (or to be more specific Rawalpindi) has no intention whatsoever of stopping “bomb blasts,” harping on the issue of ushering normalcy through Indo-Pak talks makes little sense.

Let’s not forget that the Pakistan army has worked very hard to achieve its present status of indisputable supremacy and no army chief will ever relinquish the extra-constitutional powers, perks and privileges the men in khakis enjoy. Former army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa admitted that the Pakistan army “is often made the subject of criticism (and) a major reason for this is the army’s interference in politics for the last 70 years, which is unconstitutional,” but did nothing to remedy this serious malady.

And since Field Marshal Munir (who was always considered apolitical till he became army chief) has turned a deaf ear to his predecessor’s advice to keep the army away from politics, it’s amply clear that Rawalpindi will continue to rule Pakistan-come what may.

Lastly, it doesn’t require rocket science to deduce that despite glibly expressing views to the contrary, the heart and soul of Pakistan army Generals lies not in ensuring the wellbeing of their country or its people but in preserving Rawalpindi’s own turf. As such, looking forward to normalisation of Indo-Pak relations through dialogue is delusional and a case of harbouring great expectations!

Nilesh Kunwar is a retired Indian Army Officer who has served in Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur. He is a keen ‘Kashmir-Watcher,’ and after retirement is pursuing his favourite hobby of writing for newspapers, journals and think-tanks. Views expressed above are the author’s own