It has been a historic but chaotic week for Philippine politics.
On May 11, Vice President Sara Duterte was impeached for the second time by members of the House of Representatives.
The same day, Duterte allies regained the leadership in the Senate, which means they will oversee the impeachment trial of the vice president.
A warrant of arrest was also issued by the International Criminal Court for Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a former police chief who implemented the bloody campaign against illegal drugs during the term of President Rodrigo Duterte, Sara Duterte’s father.
Instead of surrendering, Bato sought refuge in the Senate, which gave him protective custody. A few days later, Bato sneaked out of the Senate to avoid arrest as he dismissed the ICC case as an act of foreign interference.
What are the implications of these actions and developments on Philippine politics?
First, the new Senate majority clearly demonstrated that they have the numbers to acquit Sara Duterte. At least 16 votes are needed to convict the vice president, which would remove her from office and prevent her from holding an elected position for life. Duterte can simply rely on the loyalty of her faction in the Senate to survive the impeachment trial and come out stronger ahead of her planned run in the 2028 presidential election.
The pro-Duterte senators can also maneuver to delay and prolong the impeachment. For example, they can invoke legal provisions to either block the presentation of evidence or restrict the release of records that can be shared with the public. They can echo the argument of the Duterte camp that publishing the financial data of the vice president and her husband violates privacy and bank secrecy laws.
But even if she has the Senate majority on her side, Duterte’s political clout was undermined after she failed to persuade House members to vote down her impeachment. Despite the threat issued by a pro-Duterte party, the final tally of the impeachment was greater than last year’s impeachment vote. Either the House majority doubled down on consolidating its ranks, or Duterte’s political influence has been eroded. Duterte may be rating high in public opinion surveys, but she needs the political machinery of local legislators to ensure her victory in the 2028 election.
Duterte’s impeachment reflected the dominance of allies of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the House, but the Senate coup and Bato’s daring escape highlighted the challenges hounding a president whose term is expected to end in two years. The Marcos government faces the embarrassing prospect of failing to secure the conviction of Duterte in the Senate, and if it continues to fail to serve the ICC warrant of arrest against Bato and his drug war co-conspirators.
The Senate standoff intensified the political crisis, which could gravely affect the work of Congress. Legislative matters are held hostage by the frequent changes in the Senate leadership. This could derail the passage of priority bills, hamper the ongoing anti-corruption probe, and prevent urgent coordination between the two chambers of Congress, the presidential palace, and other government agencies.
While the Duterte bloc may have gained the upper hand in the Senate, the crisis it ignited has bolstered the argument that it is almost impossible to conduct an impartial, credible, and safe trial involving incumbent and former officials involved in the bloody “war on drugs.” How can drug war victims expect a fair judicial process if the Senate even offered sanctuary to a suspect charged with crimes against humanity? This affirmed the importance of pursuing justice through the ICC.
The Senate will be the center of political drama in the next few weeks and months, coinciding with the impeachment trial of Duterte and Bato’s desperate bid to evade arrest. The anti-corruption movement that mobilized more than 100,000 people in 2025 is expected to organize vigils, protests, and delegations inside and outside the Senate to drum up support for the call for accountability. Meanwhile, Duterte supporters are amplifying the call to reject the impeachment process.
Philippine politics is bound to become more polarized as rival forces seek to outmaneuver each other in their bid for dominance before the start of the election season next year. What is crucial for the opposition bloc is to present itself as a viable electoral force that is more interested in pushing for political reforms, economic relief, and fighting for accountability and justice.
