Babur cruise missile failed in April 2018 and second consecutive test failed in March 2020
China has reportedly refused Pakistan’s plea for assistance in acquiring a sea-based nuclear second-strike capability, citing proliferation concerns and international treaty obligations.
The rejection comes after Pakistan’s Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile programme failed to deliver a credible deterrent, leaving Islamabad without a survivable retaliatory option against India’s advancing nuclear submarine fleet.
Pakistan’s request to Beijing was made during high-level strategic talks, where Islamabad sought guarantees against possible US retaliation and offered concessions such as expanded Chinese access to Gwadar Port. The proposal included military modernisation support and intelligence upgrades to counter India’s growing capabilities.
However, China firmly declined, warning that such a transfer would amount to direct nuclear proliferation in South Asia and risk violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, under which Beijing is classified as a nuclear weapon state. Pakistan, not being a signatory, remains outside the treaty framework, making any such transfer diplomatically and legally untenable.
The refusal highlights the limits of the so-called “all-weather” alliance between China and Pakistan. While Beijing has supplied Islamabad with advanced conventional weapons, submarines, fighter jets, and financial aid, it has drawn a red line at nuclear second-strike technology.
Survivable deterrence, based on nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, is considered one of the most sensitive elements of global security architecture.
Only six nations — the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and India — currently maintain such capabilities, with continuous patrols ensuring assured retaliation even after a devastating first strike.
Pakistan’s Babur-3 program, unveiled in 2017, was intended to provide a submarine-launched nuclear-capable cruise missile to establish second-strike credibility.
However, technical failures, limited submarine endurance, and inadequate stealth capabilities have prevented the system from maturing. In contrast, India has successfully tested the K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile from its indigenous nuclear submarine INS Arighat, giving New Delhi a credible sea-based deterrent. This widening gap has left Pakistan vulnerable, prompting its appeal to China.
The episode underscores Islamabad’s strategic anxieties as India consolidates its nuclear triad. Pakistan’s reliance on land-based missiles and aircraft leaves its arsenal exposed to a potential pre-emptive strike.
Without a credible second-strike option, its deterrence posture risks being undermined. China’s refusal also reflects Beijing’s caution in avoiding direct entanglement in South Asia’s nuclear rivalry, even as it deepens conventional defence cooperation with Pakistan.
Analysts suggest that Pakistan may now attempt to revive its Babur-3 programme with indigenous improvements or seek alternative technologies short of full-fledged nuclear submarines. However, the technological, financial, and operational hurdles remain immense.
The setback illustrates the constraints facing Pakistan’s strategic ambitions and the careful balancing act China must perform between supporting its ally and avoiding international fallout.
Agencies
