- An apparent terrorist bombing in the western city of Lviv over the weekend raised the prospect of increased threat to civilians
- The prospect of localised attacks conducted by people recruited by Russia is the latest evolution of the four-year-old war
- Hopes that a US-brokered peace deal can be agreed in 2026 remain, although significant obstacles persist
The four-year anniversary of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine will be marked with faint but persistent hope for a potential cessation of combat in 2026, with the United States likely keen to be seen to bring a halt to the grinding conflict.
Under the administration of US President Donald Trump, Washington has moved into a far more neutral stance on the Ukraine-Russia war, a notable shift from the extensive support provided during the days of the Biden presidency.
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The US is notably keen to disentangle itself from European security and seeks to engage with Russia more as a trading partner than a potential geopolitical rival.
Ukraine’s European allies, reeling from Washington’s decision to leave conventional security up to the countries of Europe, continue to support Kyiv with equipment and financial aid, although neither in the scale desired, or required.
Should there be no ceasefire or peace agreement in 2026, it is uncertain whether Europe will have the combined political will to take the role as the prime backer of a wartime Ukraine in the long-term.
The UK, for its part, wants to be seen as a continental force, committing its forces to any future peacekeeping mission. Whether its forces are in any fit state to perform that role, is another question entirely.
A brewing terror threat?
Recent incidents in Russia and Ukraine point to the evolution of a new kind of threat, as asymmetric warfare and insurgent cells are recruited to perform targeted killings of key personnel, or else embark on localised terrorism.
One source in Ukraine has detailed to Army Technology of concerns over the development of an insurgent war, citing a potential “spike in insurgent/state-sponsored street-level attacks”.
Similar concerns have reputedly been discussed by foreign defence attaches based in Kyiv.
Last week, a Ukrainian police officer was killed following the detonation of two explosive devices hidden in waste bins in the western city of Lviv, with dozens of civilians injured in the incident.
In a social media post on 22 February, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the circumstances of the “terrorist attack” were being investigated, citing that the “perpetrators were recruited via Telegram” and organised by Russia.
In Russia, a number of senior military figures have been targeted in hit-and-run attacks, actions blamed on Ukraine by Moscow. An incident in early-February saw the second-in-command of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency wounded by gunfire, the latest in a series of incidents dating back to 2022.
Such incidents appear targeted specifically at military personnel, rather than the civilian population.
Ukraine-Russia war: combat continues
Combat operations continue along the eastern front in Ukraine, as Russia persists with aerial strikes on energy infrastructure during a biting winter cold snap. The Institute for the Study of War, in its daily analysis, on 22 February said that Russian strikes appear to be extending to rail and utilities infrastructure.
Ukrainian cities are nightly targeted by Russian forces, causing significant damage and likely loss of life.
Over the weekend, hundreds of missiles and long-range Shahed drones were launched against Ukrainian targets, as Moscow seeks to maintain pressure on the embattled Ukrainian state.
In the four years since 24 February 2022, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian military personnel have been killed in the most intense and prolonged period of combat on European soil for generations.
Russian combat casualties are likely well in excess of one million personnel, counting those killed in action, wounded, or missing.
Ukraine’s own losses are a closely guarded state secret, although President Zelenskyy said in early-February that 55,000 Ukrainian military personnel had been killed in the fighting since 2022. However, this figure is considered to be conservative, with the actual number potentially far higher.
Losses of military equipment on both sides have been massive, with the war evolving through distinct stages over the years. At present, the drone-dominated fields of eastern Ukraine offer little respite for combat personnel, amid a saturated battlespace and constant threat level.
Analysis carried out by open-source intelligence platform Oryx, states that Russia has sustained nearly 14,000 armoured vehicles destroyed, damaged, or captured, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), and other armoured platforms, as well as tens of thousands of artillery systems.
For its part, Ukraine has reportedly lost over 5,600 tanks, IFVs, and other armour, including losses to vehicles like the M1A1 Abrams, Challenger 2, and Leopard 2 tanks, provided by Western backers.
