Pakistan has sharply rebutted a recent US intelligence assessment that groups it with adversarial states like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran over its missile ambitions.
The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, authored by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, warns that Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program “potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the homeland.” This places Islamabad under heightened scrutiny from Washington.
In response, Pakistan’s Foreign Office dismissed the characterisation as baseless and swiftly pivoted to India’s defence developments. It accused New Delhi of pursuing a missile exceeding 12,000 kilometres in range, claiming this “raises broader security concerns beyond the region.” The statement frames India’s program as a global threat, far outweighing Pakistan’s own capabilities.
Pakistan spotlighted three Indian systems in its retort. The Agni-V, already inducted into service, boasts a range surpassing 8,000 kilometres, placing most of Asia within reach. This road-mobile, canister-launched missile represents a cornerstone of India’s nuclear triad.
Development of the Agni-VI, a three-stage intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), has been publicly acknowledged since May 2018. Defence analysts estimate its range at up to 12,000 kilometres, enabling strikes across Eurasia and into the Pacific. The system remains under testing, with indigenous solid-fuel technology at its core.
The K-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) forms the third pillar of Pakistan’s critique. Designed for India’s Arihant-class nuclear-powered submarines, it offers a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometres. Pakistan argues that deployment during extended ocean patrols would allow India to threaten Europe, Russia, Israel, and US Pacific territories from stealthy sea-based platforms.
This deflection aligns with Pakistan’s strategic narrative. Its longest operational missile, the Shaheen-III, tops out at 2,750 kilometres—adequate to cover India but well short of the 5,500-kilometre ICBM threshold defined by arms control standards. No Pakistani system yet approaches intercontinental reach.
Tensions trace back to December 2024, when the US State Department imposed sanctions on Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and three private firms. These penalties targeted procurement of missile-applicable equipment, including maraging steel and carbon fibre, amid concerns over proliferation risks. Pakistan views such measures as discriminatory.
Islamabad’s invocation of India’s Agni-VI draws on verifiable facts. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has confirmed the program’s advancement, with prototypes undergoing ground tests. Flight trials could commence soon, potentially mirroring the Agni-V’s rapid maturation from concept to deployment.
Pakistan contends that sea-launched K-5 missiles disrupt India’s “credible minimum deterrence” doctrine. By enabling second-strike survivability from the Indian Ocean, they extend India’s nuclear reach asymmetrically. This, Islamabad argues, invites a regional arms race while drawing in extra-regional powers.
The US assessment reflects broader anxieties. It notes Pakistan’s pursuit of multi-stage solid-propellant engines and re-entry vehicle technologies, potentially enabling ranges beyond 3,000 kilometres. Coupling this with MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle) capabilities could overwhelm missile defences.
India’s silence on Pakistan’s claims is telling. New Delhi typically avoids direct rebuttals to such provocations, focusing instead on strategic autonomy. The Agni series underscores its no-first-use policy, emphasising deterrence against existential threats rather than offensive posturing.
Pakistan’s manoeuvre seeks to recast Washington as selectively blind. By highlighting India’s longer-range assets, it implies US threat assessments favour an Indo-Pacific ally over a counterbalance in South Asia. This echoes longstanding grievances over F-16 sustainment and nuclear sanctions.
The exchange underscores escalating missile competitions. India’s indigenous push, via initiatives like the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program, contrasts with Pakistan’s reliance on imported components despite sanctions. Both nations prioritise cannisterised, road- and sea-mobile systems for rapid response.
An operational Agni-VI would position India among a select club of ICBM powers, enhancing its strategic depth amid tensions with China. For Pakistan, US scrutiny risks constraining its deterrence posture against a conventionally superior rival.
As of March 2026, no official Indian response has emerged. The episode highlights how intelligence reports can ignite diplomatic salvos, with missile ranges serving as proxies for deeper power balances in South Asia.
Agencies
