- A Ukrainian drone hit Estonian infrastructure and another crash landed in southern Latvia
- Baltic Governments consider it a spillover of the Russia-Ukraine war; the Latvian MoD labelled the circumstance an “isolated incident”
- Ukraine targeted the Baltic port over the course of 24 and 25 March as part of its strikes against Russian oil terminals in Leningrad Oblast
Two one-way attack drones of Ukrainian origin entered Estonian and Latvian airspace, hitting infrastructure and crash landing respectively on 25 March.
Both uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) strayed from a Ukrainian drone barrage against the port of Ust-Luga in Leningrad Oblast, according to open source information from the Institute for the Study of War. The site was targeted as it comprises a Russian oil terminal where so-called Shadow Fleet tankers bypass international sanctions to finance Russia’s war machine.
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Nevertheless, both Baltic Governments maintained that the occurrence was a spillover of the Russia-Ukraine war.
In a post on the social media platform X, Estonia’s president Kristen Michal stated emphatically: “This drone was not directed at us. There were no casualties.”
Meanwhile, Army Technology spoke with the Latvian Ministry of Defence (MoD) to confirm precise details of the drone that crash landed in the Krāslava region on a flight path from inside Russia.
In this instance, Ukraine’s UAS system, which was flying low at around 500 metres, self-detonated and consquently disintegrated after the explosion. It was powered by an internal combustion engine and equipped with explosives.
The Latvian military detected the flight and subsequent explosion of the wayward drone using acoustic monitoring sensors. Notably these systems were employed last year, after Latvia’s president said on national television that these systems will provide coverage for 87% of the country’s eastern border.
“As Russia’s full-scale warfare in Ukraine continues, we cannot entirely avoid such or similar incidents,” the MoD insisted.
The incident does not constitute a national crisis, it continued, “it is an isolated incident.”
Both nations will attend the Joint Expeditionary Force meeting in Helsinki, Finland today (26 March), where leaders will discuss collective support for Ukraine; wider European security; countering the Russian Shadow Fleet; protecting critical infrastructure; while Michal, in his post, noted an opportunity to discuss “how to accelerate efforts to strengthen air defence” across the Nato’s eastern flank in light of this incident.
Russia’s Shadow Fleet in data
There are approximately 1,500 tankers – 610 of which are sanctioned – which make up Russia’s so-called Shadow Fleet, enabling the aggressor to unlawfully sell its oil products.
According to various estimates, revenue from oil sales through these “shadow” mechanisms may constitute up to 35–40% of Russia’s federal budget.
These funds are used, among other things, Ukraine claims, to procure microchips for Kalibr cruise missiles and manufacturing drones such as Shahed and Geran.
