Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra walked free from prison today on parole, after serving a total of 243 days in prison connected to an old corruption and abuse of power case.
According to a report by Reuters, the 76-year-old walked out of Klong Prem Central Prison in Bangkok at around 7:40 a.m., wearing a white shirt, blue pants, and Nike sneakers, and with his hair cut short. Thaksin was immediately embraced by close family members, including his daughter and recent prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
Hundreds of “red shirt” supporters also turned out to greet the former leader, and mobbed his Mercedes-Maybach as it attempted to drive him away from the prison. Thaksin later reported to the probation office, where he was reportedly fitted with an electronic monitoring bracelet, which he will be required to wear during his four-month probation period. While on parole, Khaosod English reported, Thaksin will also be prohibited from traveling outside his residential area without permission, and must report to probation officers each month.
Thaksin’s parole was approved in late April by the Ministry of Justice’s parole committee, which said that Thaksin had met the various requirements for early release, including having served two-thirds of his one-year prison sentence.
Thaksin returned to Thailand in August 2023 after more than 15 years in self-exile, on the same day that his Pheu Thai Party formed a new government. Thaksin’s return was part of a grand bargain with his foes in the Thai conservative establishment, the purpose of which was to block the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) from forming government, after its surprise victory at the general election the previous May.
Thaksin then faced an eight-year prison sentence for abuse of authority and conflict of interest dating back to his tenure as prime minister between 2001 and 2006, which was subsequently commuted to one year by King Vajiralongkorn. However, Thaksin then went on to serve the sentence in a VIP suite at a police hospital, due to a number of supposed health issues, and as a result, spent barely any time in prison. After complaints by royalist petitioners, the Supreme Court ruled that this was unlawful and did not qualify as time served, ordering him to return to prison. Thaksin began his sentence on September 9.
So large has Thaksin loomed over Thai politics since the turn of the century that the news of his pending parole has inevitably prompted speculation about his return to the political fray. There is little doubt that the former PM will try to reassert the influence that he has exercised in Thailand since his initial barnstorming election victory in 2001, just as he did after his return to Thailand in 2023. While Pheu Thai says that he will remain in the background, “Thaksin seems incapable of taking a back seat, whatever he may say about spending more time with his grandchildren,” as the BBC’s Jonathan Head put it.
However, as I noted when his parole was initially approved, Thaksin’s time in prison has coincided with a decline in political fortunes for his Pheu Thai Party. Two weeks after his imprisonment, the Constitutional Court dismissed his daughter, Paetongtarn, as prime minister over a leaked phone conversation she had had with Cambodia’s influential former Prime Minister Hun Sen over the two nations’ border dispute. This precipitated the collapse of the Pheu Thai government and the formation of a new government under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party.
Bhumjaithai subsequently went on to win a decisive victory at the general election on February 8, winning 192 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives. Pheu Thai slipped to third behind the MFP’s successor, the People’s Party, and won just 74 seats, the worst electoral performance of any Thaksin-affiliated party since 2001. Remarkably, it also failed to win any constituency seats in Chiang Mai, the Shinawatras’ hometown in northern Thailand.
The party was able to negotiate for itself a junior role in the coalition formed by Anutin. However, the “grand bargain” with Thailand’s conservative establishment after the 2023 election has backed the party into a corner. While it allowed Pheu Thai once again to form the government and Thaksin to return to Thailand, this came at some reputational cost. The party effectively ceded its status as the focus of pro-democratic opposition energy to the MFP (and later the People’s Party), disappointing many of its previously zealous “red shirt” supporters. It also achieved little during its two years in office, failing to follow through on many of its flagship policy promises. As Napon Jatusripitak told The Diplomat back in March, “the party had very little to offer beyond nostalgia.”
At the same time, the bargain evidently did little to dispel the hostility that many royalists and conservatives had felt for Thaksin since his initial political breakout in the early 2000s. Angered by Thaksin’s flaunting of his influence, or perhaps just prosecuting old grievances, royalist legal petitioners filed a rash of complaints that resulted in the court-ordered dismissal of two Pheu Thai prime ministers – Srettha Thavisin in August 2024 and Paetongtarn in August 2025 – as well as the court ruling that dispatched Thaksin to Klong Prem Central Prison last September.
As things stand, the party risks being squeezed into irrelevance between the progressive People’s Party to its left and the conservative (and politically well-connected) Bhumjaithai Party to its right. Trying to extricate itself from this predicament and refresh the party’s image will no doubt be a considerable challenge. Whether or not an ageing Thaksin is the right person to lead this renewal is perhaps the most pressing decision now facing the party.
