BEIRUT — As the United Arab Emirates confronts a disproportionate number of attacks from Iran, the small Gulf nation just to Iran’s south appears to be sharing less information about how successful its air defenses have been in recent days.
In the first 10 days of the war, the UAE stood out as sharing detailed numbers on the missiles and drones attacking its airspace as well as successful interceptions. For instance, the Ministry of Defense said that as of March 8, a total of 1,422 unmanned aerial vehicles had been detected, 1,342 of which were intercepted. All eight threatening cruise missiles had been taken out.
But for the last two days it appears the Emirati government changed tack, posting only the number of missiles and drones it has “engaged” with that day. In all, the MoD said the attacks have resulted in six fatalities. The ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment today about the change.
Jean Loup Samaan, senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore, told Breaking Defense that it’s hard to speculate why the UAE is releasing fewer details.
“But I imagine that as we are almost two weeks into this war air defense capabilities of most Gulf states are struggling in terms of depletion,” said Semaan, also an Atlantic Council senior non-resident fellow.
Brian Carter, research manager and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), wrote on X that the UAE “likely stopped differentiating between ‘detected’ and ‘intercepted’ munitions because publicly advertising that information affects operational security. Each ‘intercepted’ munition means one less interceptor for Iran to worry about.”
Among other air defense systems, the UAE operates American-made Terminal High Altitude Air Defense System (THAAD) and Patriot, as well as the South Korean Cheongung-II medium-range KM-SAM.
Those systems have been put to the test during Iran’s strikes on the UAE, which at its closest point is some 60 miles from Iran’s southern coast. The UAE has been targeted with more than half the number of drones Iran has used to attack all other Arab states combined — 1,514 drones targeting UAE out of 2,491 drones attacking KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain combined as of Thursday, according to figures compiled by the US-based thinktank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and those released by the Saudi government.
The UAE has also had the largest number of missiles heading towards its airspace: 283 missiles in total, compared to the 831 missiles that were spread among Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. Out of all the projectiles launched from Iran, an estimated 48 percent targeted the UAE.
“The UAE is being hit more frequently because Iran sees it as the Gulf state most strategically aligned with Israel. Normalization and deep security coordination create the perception of involvement, even if the UAE is not launching attacks [on Iran] itself,” Marwa Maziad, an assistant professor of international relations at the Gildenhorn Institute for Israel Studies at University of Maryland, told Breaking Defense.
Defense and security expert David Des Roches said that one of the reasons UAE is getting the largest number of attacks is simple geography.
“They are closest, and the fact that Iran’s missile inventory of short-range missiles were not touched during the 12-day war, they have an intact inventory there, so they have a lot of missile inventory that can’t reach Israel that they decided to launch at UAE,” he told Breaking Defense.
In his opinion, Mohammed Soliman, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said that Dubai also represents something Iran finds threatening: “an open, globally connected economy thriving just across the Arabian Gulf.
“It’s not only about American bases. The UAE has built a model based on tourism, finance, technology, and logistics,” he said. “Striking that model sends a message. Iran wants to damage Dubai’s reputation as a safe global hub, which, for Tehran, carries far greater strategic weight.”
Why Some Drones Slip Through Air Defenses
News reports and numbers issued by Arab states show that drones have had better luck penetrating air defenses than missiles, which analysts said could be due to their inherent sneakier nature, or the prioritization of the air defenses themselves.
“The issue with UAV relates to detection: they fly at lower altitude and their trajectory can easily change so it makes it difficult for radars to detect them,” Semaan said. “Then intercepting it is also difficult, most defense systems operated in the Gulf are designed against missile and rocket threats, drones remain hard to intercept because of their maneuverability.”
Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, noted that some early victims of Iran’s attacks included air defense early warning radars, making it all the easier for some drones to get to their targets. But, he said, there “seems to be a rationing of intercepting missiles at the moment.
“Interceptor missiles are prioritized against ballistic missiles,” he said. “There is a preference for air-to-air missiles intercepting them.”
