The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during the latter’s visit to Beijing on May 19-20 was closely watched in New Delhi for its outcomes.
While Russia is a close strategic ally of India, China has been a difficult neighbor, with whom it has a long-standing border dispute. The Sino-Russian relationship, going forward from the Beijing summit, would have implications for India.
The Xi-Putin summit saw the two sides agree to extend the China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation, which was originally signed in 2001 and extended in 2021. According to a Russian statement, the two sides agreed “to strengthen coordination and interaction in bilateral and multilateral formats, jointly respond to various challenges and threats, and support global and regional security and stability.” This could see Moscow and Beijing continue to coordinate their responses to major global crises, including in the UN Security Council and other major international groupings like the SCO and BRICS.
Signaling deeper cooperation, Xi and Putin oversaw the signing of 20 pacts in areas spanning economy and trade, education and science and technology.
Sino-Russian cooperation has grown particularly since 2022. Under pressure from Western sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia was cut off from the SWIFT system of international payments, restricting its access to the global financial services system and hampering its ability to transact international business. Its revenues from selling energy dropped as did its access to Western technology. This made Moscow heavily reliant on China. India has watched this deepening cooperation with significant concern.
India and Russia have what they describe as a “special and privileged strategic partnership.” Maintaining strong ties with Moscow is important for India, given its dependence on Russian military equipment and spares. Growing proximity between Russia and China worries India, as it would like Russia to be on its side in the event of a war or crisis with China.
Worryingly for India, the Russia-China Joint Statement on Good-Neighbourliness talks not only of closer interaction between the political establishments of the two countries, but also affirms strengthening the “traditional friendship” between their armed forces, deepening mutual trust in the military sphere, strengthening coordination and joint response “to various challenges and threats.”
“China-Russia ties are moving towards greater strategic depth, especially after the start of the Ukraine conflict and now with the Iran crisis. Both are opposed to U.S. hegemony,” Anuradha Chenoy, a former professor of Russian Studies with Jawaharlal Nehru University, told The Diplomat. “But I don’t see this as a zero-sum game,” she said.
At the Beijing summit, Russia and China failed to sign an agreement on a gas pipeline, known as the Power of Siberia 2, between the two countries. A pact on the pipeline would have provided a shot in the arm to China’s energy security amid the current global energy crisis due to the Iran war and closure of the Straits of Hormuz, and boosted Russian oil revenues.
The failure of the two sides to clinch a deal on the Siberia 2 pipeline has opened up opportunity for India, Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of Chinese Studies at the New Delhi-based Jawaharlal Nehru University, told The Diplomat. It could work to India’s benefit.
India, which imports almost 88 percent of its crude oil needs and 51 percent of its natural gas requirements, has been hit hard by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and is looking to Russia to make up for the shortfall it is facing due to the West Asian crisis.
However, it may not be able to benefit from the opportunity that has opened up. Should it step up the purchase of Russian oil and gas in the coming months, it would rile the Americans, drawing punitive tariffs and other slap-downs as it did last year—punishment for Delhi’s increased purchase of discounted Russian crude from 2022.
At Beijing, Russia and China signed a joint statement on “Advocating a Multipolar World and New Type of International Relations.” This is being welcomed in India as the concept of multipolarity is one that India supports, given that Delhi is eyeing a greater role for itself in Asia and at the larger global level.
However, “the concept of multipolarity is not stable, it is not constant, and it has not yet matured,” Kondapalli said, pointing out that with the U.S. and China looking to settle their differences and stabilize their relationship, it could result in “China’s commitment to multipolarity declining gradually.”
It would mean that China will give “less importance to BRICS, for instance,” since Trump views it as an anti-American grouping. It could result in China de-prioritizing reform of administrative structures and lending norms within multilateral lending institutions, for example, Kondapalli said.
In an unpredictable and tumultuous world, it is important for India to keep Russia on its side, even as it manages its ties with the U.S., especially with the U.S. now appearing less reliable as a partner. Meanwhile, Delhi will need to keep an eye on Russia’s growing dependence on China.
