The Indian Navy is increasingly prioritising the indigenous Twin Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF) programme, which could lead to the cancellation of plans for additional Rafale-M acquisitions.
This shift reflects a strategic push towards self-reliance, despite delays in TEDBF development and the looming retirement of the MiG-29K fleet.
The Indian Navy’s carrier aviation strategy is at a crossroads. Its current fleet of around 40 MiG-29K deck-based fighters, inducted between 2009 and 2017, has long been plagued by technical deficiencies, including frequent engine failures, poor serviceability, and structural shortcomings flagged by the Comptroller and Auditor General.
Availability rates between 2014 and 2016 were as low as 16–38 per cent, with multiple instances of single-engine landings. These issues have raised concerns about sustaining carrier air wing strength beyond 2035.
Originally, the Navy had projected procurement of 51 Rafale-M aircraft to bridge this gap. However, the number was reduced to 26 after assurances that the TEDBF would be ready for production around 2029–30, with its maiden flight targeted for 2026.
The Rafale-M was selected over the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet in a competition to arm the INS Vikrant, India’s first indigenously designed aircraft carrier. The MiG-35, offered by Russia, did not make the final shortlist.
Recent reports suggested that the Navy was considering an additional 31 Rafale-M fighters to reinforce its carrier fleet. This would have raised the total Rafale-M inventory to 57 aircraft.
However, the TEDBF program, despite delays, is now being strongly backed as the long-term solution.
The Navy has indicated a commitment to procure at least 80 TEDBF aircraft in its first phase, reflecting ambitions to build a robust indigenous carrier air wing.
The TEDBF’s development timeline has slipped considerably. The Critical Design Review phase remains incomplete, and funding approval for full-scale development is still pending.
The Aeronautical Development Agency is seeking between ₹13,000 and ₹14,000 crore to move forward. Cabinet Committee on Security clearance is now expected only around 2027, pushing the first flight milestone into the early 2030s. Production is unlikely before 2038, with several more years required to build operational squadrons.
This delay creates a transitional period in the mid-2030s where reliance on Rafale-M would have been strategically significant.
Yet, the Navy appears determined to avoid deepening dependence on imports, even if it means enduring capability gaps in the interim.
The TEDBF design chosen by the Navy prioritises operational practicality and maintainability over extreme stealth shaping, reflecting a pragmatic approach to indigenous development.
The decision to push TEDBF over additional Rafale-M acquisitions underscores India’s broader defence modernisation priorities, which emphasise self-reliance and indigenisation.
While this path carries risks of extended shortfalls in carrier-borne fighter strength, it also signals a strategic intent to break the cycle of stopgap imports that often entrench long-term dependencies.
Agencies
