The deal, valued at approximately ₹3.25 lakh crore, will be structured as a government-to-government agreement between New Delhi and Paris. Based on the precedent of the earlier contract for 36 Rafales, the Indian Air Force is unlikely to receive its first aircraft for at least four years after the signing.
Dassault Aviation’s order book has grown substantially in recent years, with over 150 aircraft already committed to other customers, which could further delay deliveries.
Reports suggest the contract may be signed early next year, with 18 aircraft to be delivered directly from France in fly-away condition and the remaining 96 to be manufactured in India. The first of the fly-away aircraft is not expected to arrive before 2032.
This development comes against the backdrop of the IAF’s squadron strength falling to a historic low of 29, well below the authorised 42.5 squadrons. Even with six squadrons of Rafales added, the total would rise only to 35.
Compounding the challenge, the IAF plans to retire its Jaguar squadrons around 2030, while the MiG-29 and Mirage-2000 fleets are expected to be phased out by the mid-2030s. Together, these retirements could reduce the force by 12 squadrons, worsening the numerical shortfall.
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has yet to deliver any of the contracted TEJAS MK-1A fighters, with delays attributed to integration issues and engine supply bottlenecks. The TEJAS MK-2 program, originally slated for a first flight in 2025, has also been delayed, with the aircraft yet to be rolled out.
The Rafale is a potent 4.5-generation multi-role fighter, equipped with advanced avionics, electronic warfare systems, and precision strike capabilities.
Its RBE2 radar, based on Gallium Arsenide technology, provides strong performance, though rival platforms increasingly employ Gallium Nitride radars, which offer superior range and resilience. Thales, the radar’s manufacturer, is developing a GaN-based variant to keep pace with competitors.
Despite these strengths, Rafales alone cannot offset the IAF’s numerical deficit, particularly in a two-front war scenario. Pakistan has inducted upgraded J-10 and JF-17 fighters with AESA radars, while China deploys advanced J-16s and the fifth-generation J-20 stealth aircraft.
Reliance on a single imported platform also raises concerns about over dependence and escalating costs. The estimated ₹3.25 lakh crore expenditure underscores the financial burden of such acquisitions.
To achieve a balanced force, India must accelerate indigenous programs. The TEJAS MK-2 is critical to replacing retiring MiGs and Jaguars, while the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft project will provide stealth capabilities to counter fifth-generation threats. Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles are also expected to play a role in future force structures.
In essence, the Rafale deal strengthens the IAF’s qualitative edge but cannot alone resolve its quantitative weakness.
India’s air-power strategy must blend imported quality with indigenous quantity, ensuring a diverse mix of platforms capable of handling simultaneous threats from Pakistan and China.
The Rafale acquisition should be viewed as one pillar of a broader force-building plan. Only by integrating Rafales with TEJAS MK-2, AMCA, and UCAVs can the IAF achieve a balanced, future-ready force structure.
Agencies
