When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many believed Kyiv would collapse within days. Yet four years later, Ukraine continues to resist one of the most powerful militaries in the world.
In today’s era, defined by drones, artificial intelligence, cyber warfare and precision strike systems, conventional superiority no longer guarantees victory.
Smaller powers have discovered how to challenge stronger adversaries through asymmetric warfare, a strategy designed not to defeat an opponent outright but to make victory prohibitively costly, uncertain and politically unsustainable.
Traditionally associated with insurgencies and guerrilla campaigns, asymmetric warfare has now evolved into a sophisticated doctrine where weaker states exploit vulnerabilities rather than confront strengths directly.
Ukraine has become the clearest laboratory of this modern form of warfare. Recognising its inability to match Russia in manpower, industrial capacity or firepower, Kyiv focused on undermining Russian effectiveness.
Drones have been the most visible instrument, with cheap commercial models destroying tanks, artillery systems, logistics convoys and even strategic aircraft worth millions. Artificial intelligence has compressed the traditional kill chain from hours to minutes, enabling rapid identification and engagement of targets.
Information warfare has been integrated seamlessly, amplifying tactical successes into strategic narratives that sustain international support. Ukraine’s relentless targeting of logistics—fuel depots, rail networks, bridges and command centres—has paralysed Russian operations, ensuring that Moscow’s superiority has not translated into decisive victory.
Iran, by contrast, has developed a different but equally instructive model. Over decades, Tehran built a doctrine of distributed deterrence to counter the military superiority of the United States and Israel. Ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, armed drones, cyber capabilities, proxy networks and hardened underground facilities form the backbone of its strategy.
A defining feature is saturation warfare, where simultaneous attacks involving missiles, drone swarms, decoys and electronic warfare systems overwhelm even the most advanced defences.
Artificial intelligence now enhances this capability further, enabling autonomous navigation, coordinated swarms and mass attacks that challenge billion-dollar defensive systems. Iran’s objective is not outright victory but deterrence through resilience, ensuring that any military solution carries unacceptable costs.
Artificial intelligence has emerged as the great military equaliser. It enables militaries to process vast amounts of information, predict enemy behaviour and coordinate operations at speeds beyond human capacity.
For weaker powers, this is revolutionary, reducing dependence on industrial capacity and financial resources. AI-enabled drone swarms, cyber operations and machine-learning systems analysing satellite imagery can overwhelm sophisticated defences and disrupt critical infrastructure.
The future battlefield will be a contest between networks of humans and intelligent machines, where speed of decision-making will determine success. India risks strategic surprise if it treats AI as a mere support function rather than a core combat capability.
India’s threat environment is uniquely complex. China enjoys significant advantages in manufacturing, missile inventories, shipbuilding and defence industrial output, while Pakistan remains a persistent challenge capable of creating a two-front contingency.
Conventional deterrence through fighter aircraft, naval platforms, artillery and armoured formations remains indispensable, but recent conflicts demonstrate that conventional power alone is insufficient. India requires an asymmetric layer capable of imposing disproportionate costs on adversaries.
India possesses many ingredients for such a transformation. Its technology sector is vast, its software talent pool unmatched, its space programme sophisticated and its start-up ecosystem vibrant. Yet these advantages have not been converted into asymmetric military capability.
The first priority should be mass drone warfare, with thousands of low-cost reconnaissance drones, loitering munitions and autonomous strike systems.
Second, AI-enabled command-and-control systems must integrate data from satellites, radars, drones and battlefield sensors into a unified operational picture.
Third, offensive cyber capabilities must become central to national defence, targeting not only military assets but also communications, transportation, finance and infrastructure.
Fourth, investment in electronic warfare is essential to jam, deceive or disrupt enemy sensors.
Fifth, maritime asymmetry in the Indian Ocean offers opportunities to threaten Chinese sea lines of communication through long-range missiles, submarines and unmanned maritime systems. Finally, India must embrace large-scale human-machine teams, fusing soldiers and commanders with AI-enabled systems.
The wars in Ukraine and West Asia suggest India requires a doctrinal shift as significant as any modernisation program. The first principle should be deterrence through cost imposition, ensuring adversaries believe aggression will trigger consequences far exceeding potential gains.
The second principle should be survivability through dispersion, avoiding large concentrations of forces vulnerable to surveillance and precision strikes.
The third principle should be affordable mass, where thousands of drones provide greater operational value than a handful of expensive platforms.
The fourth principle should be rapid innovation, as procurement cycles measured in decades are incompatible with technologies evolving every few months.
The fifth principle should be multi-domain integration, where land, air, sea, space, cyber and information operations are executed as a single ecosystem. Above all, India must embrace artificial intelligence as a core military capability.
Agencies
