In late 2025, Pakistan entered into a mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, binding both parties to provide military support should either come under attack.
This arrangement now faces its first serious test as Iran intensifies missile and drone strikes against Saudi targets, raising the prospect of Pakistan being compelled to honour its commitment.
Should the conflict continue to escalate, Pakistan may find itself under mounting pressure to intervene militarily. Any overt involvement against Iran carries significant risks, not least the possibility of Iranian retaliation extending to Pakistani territory.
Given the history of tensions along the Iran–Pakistan border, such a scenario is far from hypothetical and must be treated as a plausible contingency.
The strain on Pakistan’s military and economic resources would be considerable. Already grappling with persistent security challenges along its western frontier with Afghanistan and its eastern border with India, Pakistan faces the danger of overstretch.
Even limited escalation across multiple fronts could prove destabilising, undermining both its defence posture and internal stability.
Equally important is the historical pattern of U.S. engagement with Pakistan’s military leadership. Figures such as Yahya Khan and Pervez Musharraf illustrate the volatility of external alignments when domestic and regional pressures intensify.
The current army chief, Asim Munir, operates within this legacy, navigating a complex web of expectations and constraints that highlight the limits of reliance on external partnerships.
Pakistan’s present posture is best understood not as ideological alignment but as strategic necessity. By positioning itself as an intermediary, facilitating communication between the United States and Iran, Islamabad appears intent on de-escalation.
This approach is motivated primarily by imperatives of national security and regime stability, reflecting a calculated effort to avoid entanglement in a conflict that could otherwise spiral into a multi-front crisis.
IDN (With Agency Inputs)
