The Philippines, the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has requested that Myanmar let the bloc’s special envoy meet with ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, following her reported transfer to house arrest.
In a statement yesterday, the country’s Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said that it welcomed last week’s reported move of the 80-year-old from prison to house arrest and the partial reduction in her prison sentence.
“We view these developments as vital steps in a sequence of confidence-building measures necessary for long-term national stability in Myanmar,” it said.
In order to “further build international confidence,” the DFA added, Myanmar’s new military-backed government should allow Aung San Suu Kyi to communicate with her family to “demonstrate genuine commitment to national reconciliation.”
It also expressed “hopes” that the authorities would permit the special envoy, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro, “brief access” to the detained leader in order to fulfill her role of engaging “all stakeholders and parties to create an environment conducive to inclusive national dialogue.”
Last week, Myanmar state media reported that Aung San Suu Kyi, who was ousted and detained during the military coup in February 2021, had been moved from prison to house arrest. It also announced a one-sixth reduction in her lengthy prison sentence and released a photo of the leader.
In late 2022, Suu Kyi was found guilty on a long list of politically motivated charges, including incitement, corruption, election fraud, and violation of Myanmar’s Official Secrets Act, and sentenced to 33 years in prison. Various commutations have now reduced this to 18 years and nine months, of which she still has to serve more than 13 years.
However, Myanmar pro-democracy advocates and members of Suu Kyi’s family have questioned whether the photo released by state media is authentic and have launched a “proof of life” campaign to determine her true whereabouts and condition.
Manila’s request came a day before the opening of the 48th ASEAN Summit and a host of related meetings in Cebu, which will take place today and tomorrow. Myanmar will once again be an important item on the agenda, albeit one that will be forced to compete with a host of other pressing concerns, including maritime tensions in the South China Sea and the economic effects of the war in Iran.
ASEAN has blocked Myanmar’s military from sending representatives to its summits since late 2021 due to its lack of implementation of the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus peace plan. Formulated at an emergency meeting in Jakarta in April 2021, two months after the coup, this plan appointed a special envoy to Myanmar, while calling for an immediate cessation of violence and inclusive dialogue involving “all parties” to the conflict.
For the most part, the junta has done little to implement the terms of the Five-Point Consensus. Instead, it has sought to crush the nationwide uprising against military rule that followed the coup, while sticking fast to its own “roadmap,” which culminated in the recent draping of a civilian veil over the military junta.
This has posed the bloc with some difficult decisions. Aung San Suu Kyi’s reported transfer to house arrest comes shortly after coup leader Min Aung Hlaing was appointed president by the military-dominated parliament, following a controversial and widely boycotted multi-phase election that was dominated by the military’s proxy party.
This “transition” from direct to civilianized military rule has been described by most independent observers as a means of splitting the opposition to the military, and normalizing the government’s relationships with foreign countries – and ASEAN in particular. Min Aung Hlaing made this explicit during his inaugural address as president, in which he promised to prioritize stability and peace, and to “enhance international relations and strive to restore normal relations” with ASEAN.
Thailand, in particular, has indicated a willingness to help usher Myanmar back into the ASEAN family. Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkaew, who flew to Naypyidaw to meet with Min Aung Hlaing on April 22, has said on several occasions that he wishes Thailand to act as a bridge between Myanmar and the Southeast Asian bloc.
“We want to support their return to ASEAN. Our policy is to have steps in our interactions to bring them back,” Sihasak told reporters ahead of the meeting. Earlier this week, he went further, saying that he planned to invite his Myanmar counterpart to meet other ASEAN foreign ministers on the sidelines of this week’s summit, so that “he can brief us on recent developments, on what they plan to do.” It is unclear whether such a meeting will take place.
ASEAN has not officially recognized the result of the election, and has yet to reach a consensus on whether to do so, an ASEAN spokesperson said yesterday. But after a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers in January, Lazaro suggested that the transition to a “civilian” government might create some positive momentum for change.
The question now facing ASEAN is whether, and on what conditions, to welcome Myanmar back into the bloc as a member in good standing. It is likely that ASEAN is internally divided on this question, with some nations, including Thailand, pushing for normalization, while others, such as the Philippines, holding out for more concrete actions by Naypyidaw. The DFA’s statement yesterday said that the recent concessions created momentum toward the “full and effective implementation” of the Five-Point Consensus, suggesting that the Philippines has adopted a wait-and-see approach.
All this raises the question of whether the Five-Point Consensus should be ASEAN’s main frame of reference for dealing with Myanmar to begin with. Myanmar resistance groups and human rights organizations have argued that the Consensus is wildly out of step with the reality on the ground inside the country, and have long called for ASEAN to adopt a more principled and robust position toward the military that recognizes its attacks on civilian populations and its status as the root cause of the country’s crisis.
“After years of humiliation at the junta’s hands, including Min Aung Hlaing reneging on the Five-Point Consensus, ASEAN must accept that the tiger’s stripes won’t change,” the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) said in a statement yesterday. “It cannot mistake junta half-measures as genuine concessions against the backdrop of the junta’s unabated brutality.”
As a result, the SAC-M called on the Philippines to adopt a new ASEAN policy that “rejects the junta’s new proxy administration” and extends the ban on ASEAN participation to “working-level junta officials.” It also said that ASEAN should call for “the immediate cessation of all junta violence and the immediate, full, and unconditional release of all political prisoners.”
