The first departures of oil and LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in months mark a significant development in the ongoing conflict. Ship-tracking data confirms that the LNG carriers Fuwairit and Al Rayyan, along with the crude super tanker Eagle Verona, have crossed the strait bound for Pakistan and China.
These exits follow nearly three months of near-total suspension of tanker traffic caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Before the conflict, Hormuz typically saw between 125 and 140 vessel passages daily, but since late February only a handful of super tankers have moved under Iranian-designated transit routes.
The resumption of limited traffic coincides with intensified U.S.-Iran diplomacy, raising hopes for a broader reopening of the strait. Pakistan, acting as a mediator, is receiving urgently needed LNG cargoes, while China remains a primary destination for crude shipments.
These controlled departures may represent confidence-building measures ahead of a potential agreement, though around 20,000 seafarers remain stranded aboard hundreds of ships in the Gulf. The humanitarian dimension of this prolonged blockade has drawn increasing concern from shipping unions and international organisations.
A draft memorandum between Washington and Tehran outlines a 60-day ceasefire extension, Iran’s immediate reopening of Hormuz, and disposal of its enriched uranium stockpile under a jointly agreed mechanism. In return, the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and allow oil sales via sanctions waivers, with full pre-war shipping conditions targeted within 30 days.
The deal also envisions ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, though Iran has yet to agree to all terms. Diplomats suggest that the uranium disposal mechanism could involve transfer to a neutral third country under IAEA supervision, a step designed to reassure sceptical European allies.
Since the strikes on Iran on 28 February, Hormuz has been a focal point of geopolitical tension. The U.K. has prepared mine-clearing operations, while some tankers have transited in ‘dark mode’ to avoid detection.
U.S. officials insist no mines have been found, but insurers demand certainty before traffic resumes fully. Clearing a safe lane could take months, underscoring that even with a deal, operational recovery will be gradual. Lloyd’s of London has warned that war risk premiums will remain elevated until a demonstrable reduction in threats is achieved.
Scenario analysis by Wood Mackenzie suggests outcomes ranging from a ‘Quick Peace’ reopening by June, which could push oil prices down to $80 per barrel, to an ‘Extended Disruption’ through year-end with severe supply shocks.
Europe faces heightened LNG vulnerability, with Equinor warning that a one to three month blockage could critically deplete gas storage. Even with a deal, restoring pre-war flows will require coordinated security, infrastructure checks, and market confidence. Analysts note that the Gulf’s shipping ecosystem—ports, bunkering facilities, and insurance networks—will need weeks of stabilisation before normal traffic resumes.
The departure of Fuwairit, Al Rayyan, and Eagle Verona therefore represents more than a logistical event. It is a signal of tentative progress in diplomacy, a test of maritime security arrangements, and a reminder of the fragile balance underpinning global energy flows.
Whether these movements herald a sustained reopening or remain isolated exceptions will depend on the success of negotiations and the willingness of all parties to enforce guarantees on safety and compliance.
Agencies
