The memorandum of understanding (MoU) that paused the US-Iran war remains in its first phase, with the Strait of Hormuz reopened, transit fees waived for an initial 60-day window, and US sanctions on Iranian crude and petrochemical exports lifted.
In exchange, Iran has frozen any advance of its nuclear program – a program already heavily degraded by the war – and gained access to tens of billions of dollars in previously frozen assets. A prospective $300 billion reconstruction fund and a future Hormuz toll arrangement with Oman are left to a second phase.
That second phase – the nuclear file – is slated for talks in Switzerland led by US Vice President JD Vance alongside Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Whether those talks gain traction is, at this stage, an open question.
The Missing Direct Line
Quwa has argued since the war that Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir was brought into the picture to help Washington reach the reconstituted leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – the tier of commanders that emerged after the strikes killed the Supreme Leader and much of the senior Guards establishment.
Whether that introduction has actually been made is unclear. What is clear is that some progress occurred, in the narrow sense that both the US and Iran were willing to meet in Switzerland at all.
