The economic fallout from the war in the Middle East has dominated talks between senior Southeast Asian officials at the 48th ASEAN Summit and related meetings, which got underway in the Philippines yesterday.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro, chairing the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM) in Cebu, said that the ongoing conflict in Iran had disrupted energy flows, trade routes, and food supply chains within the 11-nation bloc.
“The crisis has also disrupted several sectors, including transportation and tourism, while putting millions of ASEAN nationals in West Asia at risk,” she said in her opening address to the AMM, as per the Malaysian state news agency Bernama.
ASEAN, home to around 700 million people, has been one of the regions most affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February.
Lazaro said that ASEAN imports about 66 percent of its crude oil and is now facing a significant rise in fuel and energy costs that would, in turn, force up the prices of food and other essential goods.
The region’s governments have responded to the oil supply shock in a number of ways. Some have ramped up coal-powered electricity generation, and most have introduced a range of measures designed to conserve supplies. Most nations have also looked to alternative suppliers of oil, including Russia.
The energy supply shock was an example of how events outside the region could have “immediate and profound effects” on ASEAN economies, Lazaro said, calling for a joint regional response. “ASEAN needs to strengthen our crisis coordination and institutional readiness,” she added.
The energy crisis is one of the most pressing challenges facing the Philippines as this year’s ASEAN chair, one that threatens to absorb its finite attention and detract from other pressing issues facing the bloc. Among these are the conflict in Myanmar, the ongoing border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, and continuing maritime tensions in the South China Sea.
The Philippines has already called two emergency meetings of ASEAN’s foreign ministers to discuss the Middle Eastern crisis, on March 13 and April 13, and as ASEAN chair, has called for deescalation and dialogue between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Among the specific initiatives being pushed by the Philippines as chair is a regional oil-sharing framework agreement that will help alleviate the shortfall in supply. Manila says that it is also prioritizing the implementation of the long-awaited ASEAN-wide power grid plan in order to expedite energy sharing between member states.
In a separate joint meeting of ASEAN’s foreign and economic ministers yesterday, delegates discussed the development of a “crisis communication protocol” at the ministerial level to ensure “coherent, timely, and coordinated response” to all crises.
According to a statement released by the chair, the ministers also exchanged views on the broader regional implications of the Middle East war. They identified “practical, concrete response measures on strengthening energy security, safeguarding food security, and coordinating humanitarian responses.”
“Some proposals raised covered diversifying energy sources, suppliers and routes; enhancing food monitoring, information-sharing, and preparedness measures; and strengthening intra-ASEAN trade, investment, and supply chains,” the statement added.
During the AMM, Lazaro also briefed her counterparts on the latest developments in Myanmar, as the bloc’s special envoy to the country. Her briefing “covered the evolving political and humanitarian situation on the ground,” as well as the efforts to implement ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus peace plan.
Since the military’s seizure of power in February 2021, Myanmar has been paralyzed by conflict between the military and a host of ethnic armed groups and other resistance forces. There are now around 3.6 million displaced people within the country, according to the United Nations, most of whom have been driven from their homes since the coup, and March was the deadliest month for civilians since the coup. According to ALTSEAN-Burma, a network of ASEAN civil society groups working to support human rights in Myanmar, military attacks claimed 518 lives that month.
While it continues its assaults on resistance groups, Myanmar’s military is currently undertaking a push for normalization with ASEAN, which has excluded it from the bloc’s summits since late 2021, due to its lack of implementation of the Five-Point Consensus. This called for an immediate cessation of violence and inclusive dialogue involving “all parties” to the conflict.
Last month, coup leader Min Aung Hlaing was appointed president by the military-dominated parliament, after resigning as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. This followed a controversial and widely boycotted election that was dominated by the military’s proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party. Since taking office, Min Aung Hlaing has announced that his new “civilian” administration intends to “enhance international relations and strive to restore normal relations” with ASEAN.
To this end, his administration has reduced the prison sentence of detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was removed from office in the 2021 coup, and claims that it has transferred her from prison to house arrest.
The Philippines this week called for the Myanmar authorities to allow Lazaro to meet with Suu Kyi in her capacity as the bloc’s special envoy. In order to “further build international confidence,” Naypyidaw should allow Aung San Suu Kyi to communicate with her family to “demonstrate genuine commitment to national reconciliation,” the Department of Foreign Affairs said.
In an interview with Reuters published yesterday, ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn said that the bloc’s foreign ministers yesterday agreed to hold a virtual meeting with Myanmar’s foreign minister, presumably so he can make the case for normalization.
“It’s very clear that today the ASEAN foreign ministers agree that there will be an engagement with Myanmar, with the foreign minister of Myanmar, that they will have a virtual meeting coming up in the very near future,” Kao Kim Hourn said.
