- After months of anticipation, the figures behind the Defence Investment Plan have been published
- The UK Prime Minister made a speech introducing the “record investment” at BAE Systems’ drone manufacturing arm Malloy Aeronautics on 30 June
- The figures indicate some growth in defence spending but, apparently, less than pre-existing ambitions laid out last year
The UK has finally released the figures behind the long anticipated and routinely delayed Defence Investment Plan (DIP), more than 12 months after the UK’s defence priorities were identified in the Strategic Defence Review.
First impressions show that the DIP provides funding clarity for the next four years contrary to previous Government claims that it will endeavour to provide for the next decade. Although, it could be said the document does provide the strategic narrative for the next ten years.
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At the macro level, the DIP brings in an additional £15bn in defence spending in the next four years, which will increase the yearly budget to almost £80bn by 2029. The budget is said to reach 2.7% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by that time.
On the surface, this seems like a considerable step toward reaching the new Nato target of 3.5% on core defence by 2035, made more compelling by a social media post in which the Secretary General of the alliance welcoming the UK plans.
However, a closer inspection of the details indicates that the investment does not align with the pace of development required to credibly deter threats from Russia and other adversaries.
In reality, the DIP breakdown provides less money than the Government’s pre-existing “ambition” to reach 3% by the next parliament (2028-29).
But at the same time, the increase is enough for the Government to claim that the proportion of GDP spent on defence will now be “higher than at any time during the last thirty years by the end of this decade.”
While industry welcome the overdue plans, many executives have vocalised some reluctance about the scope of investment.
“Investment is clearly welcome, but success will ultimately depend on how these technologies are integrated into today’s Navy,” said Ollie Thompson, technical director for MarineAI.
Likewise, Stephen Bennington, chief executive of Bristol robotics firm Q5D, remarked: “The real test, however, is whether Britain has the industrial capability to support it.”
Land
More than £5bn will be spent over the next four years to fund a drone transformation for the UK Armed Forces.
As part of this, £650m will deliver inexpensive, expendable autonomous systems including drones and uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs) to rapidly enhance the lethality of the Army, Commando Force and Special Forces.
Air
More than £8bn will go toward the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) over the next four years, progressing the programme which will build a next-generation stealth fighter for the Royal Air Force, alongside allies Japan and Italy.
Sea
More than £63bn will be allocated over the next four years to strengthen the UK’s nuclear deterrent and to fund Dreadnought and SSN-AUKUS submarines, a new warhead, and other crucial nuclear work.
Additionally, the Government state that using these funds, it will also purchase 12 F-35A Lighnting II aircraft, allowing the service to contribute to Nato’s nuclear mission.
Including elements of the above nuclear investment in the first four years, £26bn over the next decade will be invested in Project Royal Oak which will see naval base development, including multi-billion-pound upgrades at Faslane, Portsmouth and Devonport.
Joint force
Nearly £2bn will integrate the Armed Forces through a new Digital Targeting Web.
This will enable faster decision-making and speed in destroying identified targets and will be underpinned by world leading artifical intelligence (AI) and software.
Notably, however, this is exactly double the initital fiscal commitment recommended in the Strategic Defence Review last year. Despite the lavish ambitions in this previous document, this doubling makes sense given how extensive the kill-chain has become, extending to space and cyber besides the traditional domains.
Another £11bn will spent on munitions and weapons to increase UK stockpiles and ensure the Armed Forces have “the right mix of capabilities to defeat targets,” according to the release. This will include long-range strike weapons, low-cost cruise missiles and one-way effectors.
In fact, by 2030, the Government pledge to have built at least six new energetics factories and increase the nation’s munitions production capacity.
Elsewhere, learning from its late response to the Middle East crisis this year, the Ministry of Defence will spend £790m over the next four years to enhance protection of the UK homeland and overseas bases from air, drone and missile threats.
This will supposedly “revolutionise” command and control and buy new radars and sensors.
To that end, the Government is committed to investing in directed energy weapons; upgrade Sea Viper ballistic missile defence on Type 45 destroyers; expand counter drone systems; and build a new Integrated Air, Space and Missile Defence (IASMD) Operations Centre.
Institutionally, £900m will be allocated to drive efficiency and reform procurement, including a £500m “Transformation Fund” to deliver productivity improving investments in AI and workforce transformation, as well as an initial £400m contribution to setting up the Multilateral Defence Mechanism.
Finally, UK Export Finance (UKEF), the government’s export credit agency, has also announced a new £50bn “Defence Export Fund.”
This increases UKEF’s total capacity to £130bn, with £50bn of new support on top of its existing £80bn limit. It will be used to support large-scale UK defence exports and strengthen Britain’s competitiveness in a rapidly growing global market.
